Main / Publications and documents / Publications / Economic Surveys / Economic Bulletin 1/2012
The GDP growth forecast for 2012 is 1.0%. Economic growth will rely entirely on domestic consumption. In 2013 GDP growth will edge up to 1.2% and in 2014 to 2.1%.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the crisis in the euro area will not deepen or lead to rearrangements in the currency area. On the other hand the forecast also incorporates the assumption that progress in resolving the euro area’s problems will be relatively slow.
European economic growth is fragile and indecision about what policy measures should be put in place is only adding to the uncertainty, increasing the possibility of a downward cycle setting in. It is a dangerous combination to have both public finances and the banking sector run into difficulties at the same time. In this situation the ability of national economies to absorb new shocks will be reduced, and in the event of a downturn in economic activity it would be difficult to halt the spiral of indebtedness.
Exports will only begin to recover in 2013 as international demand rebounds and global trade gathers momentum. Export growth in 2012 will be less than half a per cent. In 2013 export growth will pick up to around 2½%, accelerating further to 5% in 2014 as investment gathers pace around the world
Output will not recover to its previous peak levels of late 2007 until 2014. The difficulties in industry are set to continue, and output will not recover to its pre-recession levels during the outlook period.
Employment will improve rather slowly with the economic rebound, and as yet no significant contraction is expected in the labour force. The unemployment rate will rise to 8.1% next year. In 2014 unemployment will begin slowly to fall as a result of increasing demand for labour. The 2014 unemployment rate is 7.9%.
Public finances will remain in deficit in 2012 and the debt-to-GDP ratio will climb to 52%. Slowing economic growth will above all affect the budgetary position of central government. The adjustment measures adopted by the Government will strengthen public finances from 2013 onwards.
Type:
Publication
Title:
Economic Bulletin 1/2012
Printing year:
2012
Form of publication:
PDF
Date:
19.06.2012
Number of pages:
11
Areas of responsibility:
National economy, National finances
Publisher:
Ministry of Finance
Department:
Economics Department
Contact information:
Mr. Mika Kuismanen, Head to the Forecasting Unit, tel. +358 2955 30021
In order to read PDF files you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader (version 5.0 or newer). The program can be downloaded free from the Adobe website.
Ministry of Finance P.O BOX 28 FIN-00023 GOVERNMENT Tel. +358 295 16001 E-mail: valtiovarainministerio@vm.fi